Industrial Metals · NI · USD / t
Nickel
Nickel is the casualty of Indonesia's HPAL/RKEF expansion. Class-1 and Class-2 nickel markets have effectively merged via Indonesian processing, drowning the LME price. Cycle bottom hunting only — multi-year base required.
Spot
$17,200
Δ 24h
-1.8%
Realized Vol
28.5%
Cycle Phase
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Price Timeline · 10Y
Hover · Click eventsInteractive History
Annotated Macro Events
2022LME Nickel SqueezeTsingshan short squeeze; LME suspends trading; prices spike to $100k.
2023Indonesian Supply WallRKEF expansion crushes prices.
2024Western Mine ClosuresBHP, First Quantum suspend operations.
Cycle Phase Breakdown
Probability-weighted regime modelWhere Nickel Sits in Its Supercycle
50%
30%
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50%Current — Indonesia oversupply, Western capitulation.
Accumulation
30%Forward — supply curve reset complete.
Early Bull
12%Demand recognition.
Expansion
8%Out-year.
Supply & Demand
- Indonesian Production1.8 Mt
- Battery Demand Share18%
- LME Inventory162 kt
Cross-Asset Correlation
- Stainless Steel0.72
- EV Sales0.31
- Copper0.48
Exposure Vehicles
- JJNiPath Bloomberg Nickel ETN
- BATTAmplify Lithium & Battery Tech ETF