BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%
Macro Intelligence Center

Macro Intelligence

Connect commodities with the macroeconomic forces that drive them: inflation, central banks, geopolitics, supply chains, and energy transitions.

Inflation Dynamics

How commodity prices lead or lag CPI, and what that means for allocation.

CPI YoY
3.2%
Decelerating
Core PCE
2.8%
Stable
5Y5Y Forward
2.4%
Anchored

Central Bank Policy

Rate regimes, balance sheet policy, and their transmission to hard assets.

Fed Funds
5.25-5.50%
Pause
ECB Rate
4.50%
Cutting
BOJ Rate
-0.1%
Hiking

Geopolitical Risk

Supply chain disruptions, sanctions, and strategic resource competition.

Red Sea Disruption
High
Escalating
Russia Supply
Constrained
Persistent
China Demand
Recovering
Improving

Energy Transition

Policy-driven demand shifts and the minerals required to electrify the world.

EV Penetration
18%
Accelerating
Grid Investment
$300B/yr
Rising
Nuclear Restart
+12 reactors
Growing

Commodity-Macro Correlation Matrix

Key relationships between commodity prices and macroeconomic indicators.

Gold vs CPI

active

High positive correlation during inflationary periods

+0.84
Correlation

Oil vs Recession

warning

Oil spikes historically precede recessions by 6-12 months

+0.62
Correlation

Copper vs Global Growth

active

Copper demand tightly coupled with manufacturing PMI

+0.71
Correlation

USD vs Commodities

active

Inverse relationship — dollar strength pressures commodity prices

-0.58
Correlation

Wheat vs Food Inflation

active

Grain prices transmit quickly to consumer food baskets

+0.76
Correlation

Inflation vs Gold

Gold Price (LHS)CPI YoY (RHS)

Copper vs Global Growth

Copper Price (LHS)Global GDP Growth (RHS)