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BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%
Intelligence Engine
Industrial Metals · ALI · USD / t

Aluminum

Aluminum sits between energy and metals — smelting requires 14 MWh/t making it effectively 'congealed electricity.' China's 45 Mt capacity cap and decarbonization mandates are creating a tight Western market.

Spot
$2,340
Δ 24h
+0.6%
Realized Vol
16.2%
Cycle Phase
Accumulation
Price Timeline · 10Y

Interactive History

Hover · Click events
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Annotated Macro Events
2018Rusal SanctionsUS sanctions briefly disrupt 6% of global supply.
2021European Smelter ClosuresPower crisis idles 1 Mt of EU capacity.
2024Yunnan Hydro CurtailmentsRecurring Chinese smelter cuts reveal capacity ceiling.
Cycle Phase Breakdown

Where Aluminum Sits in Its Supercycle

45%
25%
20%

Accumulation

45%

Current — capacity cap underappreciated.

Early Bull

25%

Green premium expansion.

Expansion

20%

Western reshoring.

Peak Euphoria

10%

Energy crisis scenario.

Supply & Demand
  • China Operating Capacity44.2 Mt
  • LME Inventory468 kt
  • Auto Demand YoY+5%
Cross-Asset Correlation
  • Power Prices
    0.61
  • Copper
    0.58
  • DXY
    -0.42
Exposure Vehicles
  • JJU
    iPath Bloomberg Aluminum ETN
View Full Tracker →
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Accumulation

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$17,200
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Lithium Carbonate

-4.1%
$13,400
Collapse