The Cycle Library
Historical templates of supercycles, inflation shocks, and structural shifts to guide current positioning. Each cycle includes timelines, causes, market reactions, and investment lessons.
The Commodity Cycle Framework
Early Bull
Supply constraints emerge. Smart money accumulates. Prices begin trending upward.
Expansion
Demand outstrips supply. Prices rise steadily. Media attention grows.
Supply Shock
Unexpected disruption (war, weather, policy) causes rapid price spikes.
Peak Euphoria
Speculative frenzy. Everyone wants in. Prices detach from fundamentals.
Collapse
Demand destruction or new supply floods market. Prices crash.
Accumulation
Prices bottom. Long-term investors rebuild positions quietly.
The Great Inflation (1971–1981)
A decade-long study on gold, oil, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
Unanchored monetary expansion creates persistent commodity bull markets.
The China Infrastructure Boom
How rapid urbanization redefined industrial metal demand for two decades.
Single-country demand shocks can sustain decade-long supercycles.
The Shale Revolution
US shale oil & gas transformed global energy markets and OPEC's power.
Technology disruptions can break supply constraints and crash prices.
The Electrification Epoch
Analysis of the emerging shortage in critical transition minerals through 2040.
Energy transitions create new commodity hierarchies and supply bottlenecks.
The 2008 Oil Spike & Collapse
Speculation, demand destruction, and the fastest crash in energy history.
Leverage and speculation can amplify cycles beyond fundamentals.
Gold's Quiet Accumulation (2018–2025)
Central banks' strategic shift away from USD reserves into physical gold.
Geopolitical de-dollarization creates structural demand for monetary metals.
The Cocoa Supply Crisis
West African crop failures and the historic deficit driving chocolate economics.
Concentrated supply chains amplify climate and disease risks.
Uranium's Renaissance
From post-Fukushima despair to a structural bull driven by decarbonization.
Sentiment extremes often mark the beginning of the next cycle.