Agriculture · ZW · USc / bu
Wheat ZW
Wheat trades on weather and geopolitics in roughly equal measure. Black Sea export dynamics, La Niña wheat-belt impacts, and Russian dominance of cheap exportable surplus create persistent tail risks both directions.
Spot
$562.25
Δ 24h
+0.1%
Realized Vol
19.3%
Cycle Phase
Expansion
Price Timeline · 10Y
Hover · Click eventsInteractive History
Annotated Macro Events
2022Ukraine InvasionBlack Sea exports halted; wheat spikes to $13/bu briefly.
2023Grain Corridor CollapseRussia exits Black Sea Grain Initiative.
2024Record Russian HarvestRussian export surge compresses global prices.
Cycle Phase Breakdown
Probability-weighted regime modelWhere Wheat ZW Sits in Its Supercycle
25%
20%
35%
Accumulation
25%Stocks rebuild.
Early Bull
20%Weather watch.
Expansion
35%Current — geopolitical premium plus La Niña risk.
Peak Euphoria
10%Crisis tail.
Distribution
10%Bumper harvest scenario.
Supply & Demand
- Global Stocks-to-Use30.1%
- Russian Exports52 Mt
- US Spring Plantings11.2M acres
Cross-Asset Correlation
- Corn0.71
- Soybeans0.58
- USD/UAH0.32