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BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%BRENT CRUDE$82.45+1.2%WTI CRUDE$78.14+1.5%GOLD SPOT$2,342.10+0.4%SILVER$28.15-0.1%COPPER HG$4.52-0.2%URANIUM U3O8$92.00+2.8%LITHIUM CARB$13,400-4.1%WHEAT ZW$562.25+0.1%NATURAL GAS$2.85+3.2%ALUMINUM$2,340+0.6%NICKEL$17,200-1.8%COCOA$7,850+5.4%
Intelligence Engine
Agriculture · KC · USD / lb

Coffee

Coffee is in a textbook supply shock cycle: Brazilian arabica production stress, Vietnamese robusta drought, and Asian premium coffee demand expansion. Multi-year deficit pulling on dwindling certified stocks.

Spot
$1.85
Δ 24h
+2.1%
Realized Vol
25.4%
Cycle Phase
Supply Shock
Price Timeline · 10Y

Interactive History

Hover · Click events
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Annotated Macro Events
2021Brazil FrostSevere frost damages 11% of arabica trees.
2024Robusta CrisisVietnamese drought spikes robusta to record highs.
2024EUDR Deadline StressDeforestation regulation adds compliance friction.
Cycle Phase Breakdown

Where Coffee Sits in Its Supercycle

50%
20%
15%

Supply Shock

50%

Current — multi-year deficit, stocks bleeding.

Peak Euphoria

20%

Weather panic potential.

Distribution

15%

Demand destruction at $3+.

Expansion

10%

Pre-shock memory.

Accumulation

5%

Reset scenario.

Supply & Demand
  • ICE Certified Stocks812k bags
  • Brazil 25/26 Forecast65.4M bags
  • Global Deficit-8.5M bags
Cross-Asset Correlation
  • Sugar
    0.42
  • BRL
    -0.51
  • Cocoa
    0.38
Exposure Vehicles
  • JO
    iPath Bloomberg Coffee ETN
  • CAFE
    iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN
View Full Tracker →
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