Precious Metals · XAU · USD / oz
Gold Spot
Gold has decoupled from its traditional real-rate relationship as central bank reserve diversification (post-Russia sanctions) creates a new structural buyer. The marginal buyer has shifted from Western ETF investors to Asian central banks and households.
Spot
$2,342.10
Δ 24h
+0.4%
Realized Vol
14.2%
Cycle Phase
Expansion
Price Timeline · 10Y
Hover · Click eventsInteractive History
Annotated Macro Events
2019Fed PivotRepo crisis triggers balance sheet expansion; gold breaks $1,500.
2020Pandemic StimulusUnprecedented monetary/fiscal response; first all-time high above $2,000.
2022Russia SanctionsReserve weaponization triggers EM central bank accumulation.
2024Asian Retail SurgeChinese household gold demand explodes amid property crisis.
Cycle Phase Breakdown
Probability-weighted regime modelWhere Gold Spot Sits in Its Supercycle
20%
40%
20%
Accumulation
10%2015-2018 basing.
Early Bull
20%2019-2020 monetary expansion trigger.
Expansion
40%Current — central bank-led leg with broadening participation.
Peak Euphoria
20%Tail risk: fiscal/monetary credibility crisis.
Distribution
10%Real rate normalization.
Supply & Demand
- Central Bank Net Buying1,037 t/yr
- Mine Production3,644 t
- ETF Holdings YoY+2.1%
- PBoC Reserves2,264 t
Cross-Asset Correlation
- US Real Yields-0.55
- DXY-0.48
- Silver0.78
- Bitcoin0.41
Exposure Vehicles
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares
- IAUiShares Gold Trust
- GDXVanEck Gold Miners ETF