Energy · NG · USD / MMBtu
Natural Gas
US Henry Hub trading well below global parity ($12+ in Europe/Asia) as LNG export capacity additions through 2027 will compress the arbitrage. Power demand from AI data centers represents an underappreciated structural tailwind.
Spot
$2.85
Δ 24h
+3.2%
Realized Vol
38.4%
Cycle Phase
Accumulation
Price Timeline · 10Y
Hover · Click eventsInteractive History
Annotated Macro Events
2022European Gas CrisisTTF spikes to €340/MWh; US Henry Hub follows to $9+.
2023Mild Winter ResetStorage exits winter at record highs; prices halve.
2024Freeport LNG OutageExtended outage strands US supply.
2025AI Datacenter Capex BoomHyperscaler power contracts reset demand narrative.
Cycle Phase Breakdown
Probability-weighted regime modelWhere Natural Gas Sits in Its Supercycle
40%
25%
15%
Accumulation
40%Current — bombed-out sentiment, capex pulled, LNG capacity arriving.
Early Bull
25%Winter draw + LNG ramp-up scenario.
Expansion
15%Sustained export pull-through.
Peak Euphoria
10%Tail risk.
Collapse
10%Storage flood scenario.
Supply & Demand
- US Storage vs 5Y Avg+8%
- LNG Feedgas13.8 Bcf/d
- EU TTF Spread$9.20
Cross-Asset Correlation
- Brent0.31
- Heating Degree Days0.68
- Power Prices PJM0.72