Soft Commodities · CT · USc / lb
Cotton
Cotton is range-bound as Chinese reserve releases and weak apparel demand cap upside while sub-cost pricing at the US farm gate prevents sustained downside. Setup for a weather-driven breakout in either direction.
Spot
79.5¢
Δ 24h
-0.8%
Realized Vol
17.2%
Cycle Phase
Accumulation
Price Timeline · 10Y
Hover · Click eventsInteractive History
Annotated Macro Events
2021Texas DroughtUS abandonment hits record; spike above $1.20.
2023Apparel DestockingRetail inventory glut compresses mill demand.
2024Brazil Export RecordBrazil overtakes US as world's #1 exporter.
Cycle Phase Breakdown
Probability-weighted regime modelWhere Cotton Sits in Its Supercycle
45%
20%
15%
Accumulation
45%Current — range-bound, sub-cost producer stress.
Early Bull
20%Apparel cycle turn.
Expansion
15%Weather catalyst.
Distribution
10%Supply response.
Collapse
10%Demand shock.
Supply & Demand
- Global Stocks-to-Use70.2%
- US Plantings9.6M acres
- China Mill Demand37 Mb
Cross-Asset Correlation
- Polyester (PTA)0.55
- Apparel Retail Sales0.48
- CNY-0.32